Households' welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa

Journal article

Authors / Editors

Juana, James

Research Areas

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Publication Details

Author list: Juana JS, Strzepek KM, Kirsten JF

Publisher: Taylor and Francis Group

Place: MATIELAND

Publication year: 2008

Journal: Agrekon: Agricultural Economics Research, Policy and Practice in Southern Africa (0303-1853)

Journal acronym: AGREKON

Volume number: 47

Issue number: 3

Start page: 309

End page: 326

Number of pages: 18

ISSN: 0303-1853

eISSN: 2078-0400

Languages: English-Great Britain (EN-GB)

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Abstract

Most of the climate change models for South Africa predict a reduction in freshwater availability by 2050. Population growth is projected at 3% per annum, implying increased domestic water use. In addition to these factors, the concern for ecological sustainability and increased water pollution due to increased industrial, mining and agricultural activities, water availability for sectoral production activities is expected to decline. This decline has an impact on sectoral output, value added and households' welfare. Using a computable general equilibrium approach, this study investigates the possible impact of global change oil households' welfare. The simulation results show that water scarcity due to global change call potentially lead to a general deterioration in households' welfare. The poor households, whose incomes are adversely impacted, are the Most vulnerable to the consequences of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. This vulnerability call only be reduced if welfare policies that maintain food consumption levels for the least and low-income households are implemented.

Keywords

factor remuneration, food stamps, households' income/consumption, Sectoral output, welfare analysis

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